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Intriguing and well laid out. I'll take a stab at the first question (Efodi's). Verse 7 ascribes to God positive intentions in sending Yosef down to Egypt. As the brothers certainly did not have that in mind (to the contrary—they had malicious intentions), Rambam pegs it as an example of the 'chance' category. In other words, it worked out well in the end, but that was how it happened to have played out. Verse 8, on the other hand, merely mentions God's sending Yosef to Mitzrayim, remaining silent regarding God's intentions. As the bothers—via their free will—did indeed cause that to happen, Rambam is able to read it as an example of the second category.

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Nice! I was thinking along similar lines. One of the approaches I'm working on is based on the Abravanel, who seems to understand verse 7 along the lines that you've explained, but with a twist.

Thank you for the compliment ("Intriguing and well laid out" was exactly my hope!) and for sharing your thoughts! Have a good Shabbos!

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